Tuesday, March 20, 2012

ToB Contest: Metrics and Analysis

I had a request for some metrics and analysis for the contest picks - so enjoy!

The Latest Bracket

Opening Round
44 entries

Based on predictions for the overall winner and considering the shape of the brackets, the final two would have been The Tiger's Wife vs. The Art of Fielding with The Art of Fielding taking the Rooster by a wide margin.

Overall winner predictions:
  • The Art of Fielding - 12 votes (28%)
  • State of Wonder - 11 votes (26%)
  • The Tiger's Wife - 6 votes (14%)
  • Salvage The Bones - 4 votes (9%)
  • The Marriage Plot - 3 votes (7%)
  • 1Q84 - 2 votes (5%)
  • Swamplandia! - 1 vote (2%)
  • The Sense of an Ending - 1 vote  (2%)
  • Open City - 1 vote  (2%)
* Percentages are approximate.  One entry submitted was without an overall winner

Most Popular Pick - The Sense of an Ending, with 37 (84%) of you picking it to beat The Devil All The Time (7 votes, 16%).

Most Unpopular Pick - The Devil All The Time (see above)

Biggest Upset - Lightning Rods and Open City, each with only 8 votes (18%) beating Salvage the Bones and The Art of Fielding (36 votes, 82%).

Most Even Match - State of Wonder (25 votes, 57%) vs. The Sisters Brothers (19 votes, 43%).

Opening Round Upsets:
  • Lightning Rods
  • The Sisters Brothers
  • Open City
By the way - if you haven't seen this interview that ToB judge Edith Zimmerman did with Green Girl author Kate Zambreno then I highly suggest you check it out.  If nothing else, it's interesting to read the perspective of a Tournament judge and an author on what it's like to be a part of the ToB.

Quarterfinals Round
29 entries.

One of the biggest surprises was that we had six new people join us for the Quarterfinals Round and only half of the participants from the Opening Round.

As of today, the Zombie Round books will be The Art of Fielding and State of Wonder.  I'm not sure which side of the bracket each of these will take since they were both knocked out of the same side.

Again, based on predictions for the overall winner , considering the shape of the brackets and excluding the Zombie picks, the final two will be The Tiger's Wife vs. The Sisters Brothers with The Tiger's Wife taking the Rooster by a wide margin.


Overall winner predictions:
  • The Tiger's Wife - 10 votes (34%)
  • The Sisters Brothers - 4 votes (14%)
  • The Art of Fielding - 4 votes (14%)
  • State of Wonder - 3 votes (10%)
  • 1Q84 - 2 votes (7%)
  • Swamplandia!- 2 votes (2%)
  • The Sense of an Ending - 1 vote (3%)
  • Salvage The Bones - 1 vote  (3%)
  • Open City - 1 vote  (3%)


Most Popular Picks - The Sense of an Ending, with 23 (79%) of you (incorrectly!) picking it to beat Lightning Rods (6 votes, 21%).  Also The Tiger's Wife over 1Q84 (same votes).

Most Unpopular Pick - Lightning Rods and 1Q84 (see above)

Biggest Upset - Lightning Rods.

Most Even Match - The Marriage Plot (16 votes, 55%) vs. Open City (13 votes, 45%).

Second Round Upsets:
  • Lightning Rods


So there you have it
I'm not as sure as the rest of you that 1Q84 will fall to The Tiger's Wife, nor am I confident that The Sisters Brothers will beat out Swamplandia!  I'm very interested to see how Open City fares against The Marriage Plot since they're very different books.  

I'm having a great time running this contest and I hope you all are enjoying playing along.  Remember that the current standings can always be accessed by clicking the link in the blog header.  Check back often and let us know what you think about how the ToB is progressing!

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